Turkey solidifies as Brazil's #1 gas customer year-to-date

In one of the most significant trade shifts of the year, Turkey has emerged from relative obscurity to become the top destination for Brazilian exports of petroleum gas. The country climbed 25 positions in the rankings in 2025, completely reshaping the competitive landscape for one of Brazil's key energy products.

This move represents a fundamental restructuring of Brazil's export profile for gaseous hydrocarbons. Previously a marginal player, Turkey's demand has created a new center of gravity for Brazilian producers, displacing established partners and signaling a new era in the country's energy trade dynamics.

The race

The numbers illustrate a near-vertical takeoff. In the full year of 2024, Brazil's exports of petroleum gas to Turkey were negligible, totaling a mere US$ 92 FOB. This placed Turkey at a distant #26 in the partner ranking, with a market share that rounded to 0.0%.

By 2025, the picture had transformed entirely. Turkey's purchases skyrocketed to US$ 37.98 million, an increase of roughly 413,000 times the previous year's value. This colossal surge catapulted Turkey to the #1 position, granting it a dominant 57.6% share of all Brazilian exports in this category. The former trickle of trade has become a torrent, reorienting the entire sector toward a single, major partner.

What this changes in practice

For Brazilian exporters, this sudden pivot from a diversified, low-volume base to a highly concentrated market dominated by a single partner has immediate operational consequences. The logistical requirements to service a US$ 92 order are worlds apart from those needed to fulfill nearly US$ 38 million in demand.

First, the scale of shipments has changed. Servicing the Turkish market requires mobilizing large gas carriers for long-haul maritime routes, a stark contrast to potentially smaller, regional shipments. Lead times are significantly longer, stretching into weeks, which introduces greater complexity in scheduling, cargo monitoring, and inventory management. This shift necessitates a more robust approach to supply chain planning to ensure timely delivery and manage the risks associated with transit across the Atlantic and Mediterranean.

Second, commercial terms are likely evolving. With a single partner accounting for over half of all exports, negotiations on pricing, payment terms (such as letters of credit), and Incoterms will be centralized and carry higher stakes. Brazilian firms must now adapt their risk management strategies to account for the financial and operational exposure associated with a market that is both distant and highly concentrated.

Looking ahead

Should this trend persist, the implications for Brazil's energy infrastructure could be substantial. A stable, high-volume demand from Turkey might incentivize further investment in Brazil's liquefaction capacity and port-side storage facilities to streamline exports. It solidifies a new major trade lane for Brazilian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) running directly to the Eastern Mediterranean.

However, this heavy reliance on a single market also introduces concentration risk. Any fluctuation in Turkish demand, whether due to economic shifts, changes in energy policy, or new sourcing agreements, would have an outsized impact on Brazilian exporters. Competing destinations, which were previously higher on the ranking list, will now find themselves negotiating for a smaller slice of a pie dominated by a single heavyweight player. The race for Brazilian gas has a new, undisputed frontrunner.

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