Germany becomes Brazil's top cold-rolled steel destination, up from 35th place

From 35th place to number one in twelve months

In 2024, Brazil's cold-rolled steel exports to Germany amounted to US$ 143 — the price of a single business dinner in Frankfurt. By the 2025 reference year, Germany holds rank 1, with US$ 27.3 million and a 25.3% share of all Brazilian exports in SH4 7209. The climb: 34 positions in a single year. Movements of this scale do not happen by accident. They indicate a new commercial route has opened, with contracts, logistics, and delivery terms that did not exist before.

What SH4 7209 actually is

SH4 7209 covers flat-rolled products of non-alloy iron or steel, width 600 mm or more, cold-rolled, uncoated and unplated. The end uses are concrete: automotive body panels, white goods components, industrial machine parts. German industry — particularly the automotive supply chains around Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, and Munich — consumes this material continuously. When traditional suppliers become expensive or unavailable, European buyers look for alternatives. Brazil became one of those alternatives in 2025.

Why Germany started looking at Brazil

European steel supply diversification became a strategic priority after 2022, when Russian and Ukrainian steel flows were disrupted. Germany, which imported substantial volumes from both countries, needed to cover that gap quickly. Brazilian integrated steelmakers — primarily in São Paulo and Minas Gerais — had available installed capacity and could fulfill orders at scale. A weaker Brazilian real throughout 2025 made CIF Hamburg prices competitive against Eastern European and Asian alternatives. Freight from Brazilian ports to Northern Europe runs roughly 20-25 days by sea — manageable for buyers willing to plan inventory. The arithmetic worked out.

Explaining the jump from US$ 143 to US$ 27.3 million

FOB increase represents roughly 191,000× in absolute value terms. That figure sounds absurd until you understand the starting point: US$ 143 is functionally zero — a one-off residual shipment with no established commercial channel behind it. What happened in 2025 was channel creation. Medium-term contracts were negotiated, logistics were set up, delivery terms were defined. The number stopped being residual and became genuinely material.

Reading Germany's 25.3% share

With 25.3% of all Brazilian SH4 7209 exports going to Germany, the European country overtook historically dominant destinations including Argentina, Chile, and the United States. That degree of concentration in a single partner can be read two ways: as validation that the channel works and is delivering at scale, or as exposure to a demand-side risk if Germany's industrial cycle softens. Both readings are correct and should appear in the planning of anyone operating in this market.

EU trade policy: the variable to watch

The European Union maintains steel safeguard measures administered through tariff-rate quotas by origin and product category. Brazil operates within allocated quotas for certain flat-rolled subcategories. The risk is straightforward: if Brazilian volumes keep growing, the European steel industry will lobby the European Commission for quota revision or import limit reductions. The EU Steel Safeguard review calendar is the single most important variable to track over the next several quarters for anyone building commercial exposure in this channel. Reviews typically occur every one to two years, and the next cycle will be closely watched by Brazilian exporters.

What this means for you

For exporters: the German channel is validated with real revenue and structural contracts. If you produce SH4 7209 and lack European commercial representation — a distributor, agent, or sales office — this is the moment to build that presence. The reversal risk is real, primarily through EU quota reviews. Maintain diversification across other European destinations to hedge single-partner concentration.

For importers: if you source cold-rolled steel from European suppliers and benchmark pricing, the fact that Brazilian mills are landing product in Hamburg competitively sets an implicit price ceiling for your negotiations with incumbent sellers. Use the US$ 27.3 million data point as a reference.