Brazil's kraft pulp exports to Canada surge 8×

Three years, one direction

Canada is one of the world's largest pulp producers. It has boreal forests, industrial-scale kraft mills, and decades of NBSK expertise. And yet, over three consecutive years, it has been buying significantly more Brazilian short-fiber pulp. Brazilian kraft pulp exports to Canada climbed from US$ 4.1 million in 2023 to US$ 32.2 million in 2025 — an 8× increase in two years, with the growth rate accelerating at every step. This is not a base-effect story. In 2023, trade was already established. What followed was a sustained expansion in which each successive year produced both a larger absolute number and a higher percentage gain than the year before — an unusual dynamic that points to genuine market opening rather than a one-off procurement cycle.

How the numbers moved

In 2024, shipments reached US$ 10.8 million, up 164% year-on-year — roughly 2.6 times the 2023 base. In 2025, they nearly tripled again: US$ 32.2 million, a 197% increase over 2024. The compound move over the full period came in at roughly +685%. A curve that steepens while the base grows is the signature of structural demand capture, not seasonal rebalancing. It suggests Canadian buyers moved from trial volumes to meaningful allocations, and then expanded those allocations further — a progression that typically takes years to unwind once established.

The 2026 year-to-date data through April is still being consolidated by MDIC, but early-quarter signals suggest the trend has not reversed.

The engine behind the trend

Brazil is the world's largest producer of eucalyptus pulp — a short-fiber hardwood grade with distinct properties from the long-fiber softwood (NBSK) that dominates Canadian production. The two grades do not substitute for each other; they blend. Paper and packaging manufacturers mix short and long fiber to optimize sheet strength, smoothness, and cost. When demand for blended-fiber furnishes grows, Brazil becomes a natural supplier to markets that already have surplus long fiber but need to balance the mix. FX dynamics provided meaningful reinforcement. The real's depreciation against the Canadian dollar over 2023–2025 compressed the landed-cost premium that Brazilian pulp carries versus nearby North American supply. Freight efficiency on the Santos–Vancouver corridor also improved as volumes grew and carriers optimized loading. The cost case strengthened year by year alongside the volume story.

A structural tailwind also operates independently of FX: Canada's single-use plastics regulation, combined with accelerating consumer preference for fiber-based packaging, is driving demand for virgin short-fiber pulp as a plastic substitute input. This is not a cyclical signal — it is a secular shift that plays to Brazil's competitive advantage in eucalyptus capacity.

Where Brazil stands globally

Brazil's position as the world's leading eucalyptus pulp supplier rests on a fundamental agronomic advantage: eucalyptus rotation cycles of roughly seven years, versus thirty or more for boreal conifers. That edge translates into lower cost per ton of capacity and faster supply-side response to demand signals. In the Canadian context, the dynamic is particularly clean. Canadian mills produce NBSK for export to Asia and Europe while their domestic paper and packaging industries require blended furnishes. Brazilian short-fiber fills that gap without displacing domestic production — it is additive to the Canadian trade flow, not competitive.

What this means for you

For exporters: lock in forward freight capacity on the Santos–Vancouver lane before the Northern Hemisphere Q3 buying season begins; negotiate multi-year supply agreements now, while Canadian buyers are still in the expansion phase and pricing leverage sits with the seller. For importers: stress-test your fiber blend against a tightening scenario — large Brazilian producers prioritize European and Asian long-term contracts at scale; build 60-day strategic stock before reducing NBSK allocations; track BRL/CAD movement as the primary cost variable on your Brazilian pulp position.

Three straight years of acceleration. Brazil rarely concedes market share once it earns a position in a complementary-fiber slot. Source: MDIC ComexStat.