Brazil crude to the US: value outpaces volume by 115 pp

Volume and value usually move together in crude. When they don't, something changed.

Through early 2025, Brazilian crude oil exports to the US show a 115-percentage-point gap between volume growth and FOB revenue growth. Volume grew; revenue grew faster. The implied unit price for the 2026 YTD window shows zero — indicating 2026 figures are not yet consolidated in the current data cut, so the divergence signal is calculated on the 2025 base.

The trade pair's reference base is modest: $76.8 million in FOB value and 198,000 tons in volume through Q1 2025. But the divergence between the two growth rates — one outrunning the other by 115 points — is worth unpacking.

The contrast

Through Q1 2025, volume grew +168% versus the prior period. FOB value grew +283% over the same window. The gap between those two percentages is 115 percentage points — exactly what the detection models flag as a price-volume divergence.

When value grows faster than volume, the implied unit price is rising. That can mean three distinct things: a spot price premium widening for Brazilian barrels; a quality-mix shift toward higher-value pre-salt crude; or a structural change in contract composition — more spot versus long-term deals, which typically price at a discount.

Possible explanations

The Brazil-US crude market is historically much smaller than Brazil-China. The US has its own competitive shale production and imports Brazilian crude mainly through specific East Coast and Gulf of Mexico refineries that prefer the low-sulfur pre-salt profile.

The first hypothesis is a quality premium expansion. Brazilian pre-salt has distinctive characteristics — low sulfur, high API gravity, no naphthenic acid contamination — that have become more valuable as US refineries invested in hydrotreating units optimized for that feedstock. A widening quality differential could generate revenue growth disproportionate to volume.

The second hypothesis is a seasonal calendar shift. Q1 has historically not been the peak quarter for Brazilian crude to the US — the historical cycle favors the second half. If the pull-forward buying pattern seen in the Brazil-China pair is also operating here, the shipment calendar may be shifting, with short-term contract prices reflecting that timing premium.

The third hypothesis is a dollar-denominated pricing lag. The real's depreciation against the dollar in early 2026 reduced costs in local currency for Petrobras, while dollar-denominated prices were set before the depreciation — potentially generating incremental per-barrel revenue above expectations.

What to monitor

The divergence captured in the 2025 data raises a practical question for anyone tracking the Brazil-US pair near-term.

If the 2025 pattern repeats in 2026 — with value growing faster than volume — the average price per exported ton remains in an upward trajectory, positive for Petrobras gross revenue even under flat-to-slightly-lower volume scenarios.

If, conversely, 2026 consolidated figures show a reversal — volume running ahead of value — the picture changes: that would signal price pressure or migration toward lower unit-value contract structures.

Q1 2026 consolidated data for the Brazil-US pair should surface in MDIC ComexStat within the next 30-60 days. Worth the calendar note.

The price-volume divergence dynamic in Brazilian crude to this destination echoes what happened in the Brazil-Europe pair in 2022, when the energy crisis following the Ukraine conflict pushed the low-sulfur crude premium to unusual levels. It didn't repeat the following year.

What this means for you

For exporters: the rising implied unit price suggests a window to renegotiate fixed-price contract clauses — worth checking whether any 2024 contracts still active have prices below current market.

For importers: refineries dependent on the specific pre-salt blend profile need to price the quality premium into cost calculations — the 2025 track record suggests that premium is climbing.

Source: MDIC ComexStat