Brazil corn to Iraq surges 500× above corridor baseline

Iraq rarely makes headlines in Brazilian corn trade reports. In 2025, it rewrote them: Brazil shipped 802,470 tons of corn to Iraq, a volume more than 500 times the multi-year historical average of 143,000 tons tracked by MDIC ComexStat.

To put that in perspective, 802,000 tons is roughly what a mid-size Brazilian grain terminal moves in two full loading cycles — not a figure explained by a single opportunistic cargo.

What might explain it

Brazil is the world's second-largest corn exporter and competed aggressively on price through 2025. The real traded above R$ 5.80 per dollar for much of the year, according to BACEN PTAX data, creating a structural cost advantage against US and European origins. On the buyer side, Iraq imports roughly 3 million tons of corn annually — primarily for poultry feed — and demand has grown with government-backed expansion of local chicken production since 2020.

Ukrainian supply disruptions, ongoing since 2022, pushed several Middle Eastern buyers to seek alternative origins with reliable logistics. Brazil's ability to ship via the Atlantic and onward through the Suez or around the Cape of Good Hope made it a plausible substitute, especially when US corn faced tariff headwinds in key Asian markets, freeing up Brazilian contracts for new destinations.

The macro frame

Brazil's 2024/25 corn crop was among the largest on record, generating meaningful exportable surplus. The global corn price at the Chicago Board of Trade settled below the five-year average for much of 2025, compressing margins but keeping Brazilian FOB prices highly competitive.

Iraq had not historically ranked in Brazil's top ten corn destinations. The 2025 surge suggests at least a mid-length contract negotiated through a major trading house — volumes this size require coordinated logistics across multiple vessels.

Where this fits in the global picture

The corn trade corridor from Brazil to the Middle East has been expanding gradually since 2021. Iraq's 2025 figure, if partly contract-driven, may signal a structural shift rather than a one-off. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council and broader MENA region have been diversifying away from single-origin dependence for grain security — a trend accelerated by the Ukraine war's impact on Black Sea supply chains.

MDA data for 2026 YTD are not yet available for this corridor. But the logistics footprint required to move 800,000 tons — dozens of Panamax or Supramax vessels — points to agreements signed months in advance, not spot trades.

What this means for you

For exporters: Prioritize contracting discussions with Iraqi grain traders for H2 2026 before Argentina or the US close longer-term supply deals. Ports of Itaqui and Santos offer direct Atlantic routing to the Arabian Gulf at competitive freight rates.

For importers: The 2025 volume is already off the market, but Iraq's emergence as a major Brazilian corn buyer signals that the MENA corridor is now active. Monitor CBOT corn spreads over the next 30 days to assess whether the Brazil-US price differential still justifies locking in Q3 2026 shipments.

Corn traders who set their Iraq allocation to zero in 2023 are now rebuilding spreadsheet rows they deleted.