Coffee to the UK: pace went from -67.1% to +131% in February

Brazilian coffee exports to the United Kingdom lurched in February 2026. The month-over-month pace went from -67.1% in January to +131% in February, an acceleration of 198.6 percentage points, according to ComexStat, the foreign-trade database run by MDIC, Brazil's trade ministry. A series that falls to a third and then more than doubles has only won back part of what it lost. The March-to-August data, which now exist, show that the British flow kept moving in jolts: February was the start of a back-and-forth, not of a trend, and the following months did not settle into any single direction.

January was the hole. A pace of -67.1% means the shipped value shrank to about a third of the December level (US$ 46.4 million). February flipped the sign with +131% over January, reaching US$ 35.3 million. In practice the flow more than doubled, but it started from a deep floor and still sat at 76% of December. It was a rebound, not new ground. Acceleration and growth are different things. The 198.6 percentage points measure a change of speed, the change of the change. The number looks huge because the starting point was negative. Compounded, the two months leave the flow about a quarter under December. Nobody should price a contract on the headline number alone, least of all in a market as lumpy as coffee.

What the following months showed

March was stronger: US$ 41.8 million, up 18.4% on February and the highest value of 2026 through August. But volume rose 65.8% (7.7 thousand tonnes), and the price fell from US$ 7.64 per kg in February to US$ 5.45 per kg. In April the value slipped 8.1%, to US$ 38.4 million, with the price at US$ 4.99 per kg, the lowest in the series.

In May the value plunged 46.2%, to US$ 20.7 million, and the price returned to US$ 5.60 per kg. June rose 29.3% (US$ 26.7 million, US$ 6.50 per kg). July fell 62.9%, to US$ 9.9 million, the lowest value of the period, at US$ 6.43 per kg. August jumped 153.4%, to US$ 25.1 million, at US$ 5.46 per kg. In eight months, no single move left a stable pattern.

What may explain it

ComexStat records the result, not the reason, so what follows are hypotheses still to be checked against the microdata. The first is the shipping calendar: coffee leaves in lots, and one cargo that slips from one month to the next moves the whole count. The second is restocking by British roasters after months of weak purchases. The third is the seasonality of the Brazilian harvest, which changes what is available to ship at each time of year.

The data offer one objective clue about price. In December, January and February it stayed near US$ 7.6 to US$ 7.7 per kg. From March on, it never returned to that level. So the February jump came from volume, with a steady price. The later swings mix volume and price, and only the microdata can say whether the change is in the goods or in the contracts. Brazilian coffee shows up on both sides of the trade ledger. As we showed in Switzerland becomes Brazil's top coffee supplier, inbound flows of the bean also change hands quickly.

What to watch from September

Look at value and kilograms side by side, and compare the cumulative total of several months rather than the latest pace. If the price per kg stays below US$ 6.50, value rises only with more volume.