China still leads Brazil's coated steel imports, but loses 13 points

China is still first in line for the flat-rolled steel Brazil buys abroad. We mean plated or coated sheets and coils at least 600 mm wide: the base of roofing, appliances and vehicle bodies. What shrank was the cushion. In the year to date through August 2026, imports from China totaled US$ 538,688,276 in FOB value (the price of the goods before freight and insurance), against US$ 616,051,968 in the same stretch of 2025. That is a change of -12.6%, and the #1 rank stayed intact. The share tells the rest: China went from 76.4% to 63.5% of everything Brazil imported in this category.

The scoreboard so far

A stable ranking can mislead. Last year, roughly 76 of every 100 dollars Brazil spent on this steel went to Chinese mills. This year it is a little over 63. About 13 percentage points changed hands year over year, and the arithmetic leaves one explanation: Brazil bought more from everyone else. Had total imports shrunk in step with China, its share would barely have moved. Instead the share fell faster than the sales did, which means other origins filled the gap. That is supplier substitution in slow motion, and the rank alone hides it. The data also rules out the idea that China left the market: it still sells more than all other suppliers combined.

The numbers do not say why, but the Brazilian policy backdrop offers clues. The federal government has been shielding domestic steelmakers with quotas and tariffs on imported steel, and the history of anti-dumping cases (extra duties against prices judged below cost) involving Chinese flat products weighs on buyers' choices. An importer tied to one country carries regulatory risk, so diversifying became risk management rather than a luxury. Exchange rates enter every dollar-denominated purchase as well. These hypotheses fit the pattern. The calendar matters too: contracts signed in 2025 land at port in 2026, so part of any policy effect shows up late. None is confirmed in official trade data from Brazil's development and industry ministry (MDIC).

What changes in practice

For operators, the market is less concentrated, though far from balanced. A 63.5% share is still heavy dependence. Buyers of coated coils and plated sheets gain more sourcing options and more leverage on price and lead time. Brazilian mills face less pressure from a single rival, but not for free: other origins arrive with their own prices and commercial terms. Switching origin also changes the paperwork: quality certificates, batch inspection and customs clearance with Receita Federal, with cargoes landing at ports such as Santos or Paranaguá. Anyone planning inventory should compare delivery times and freight, which vary widely between Asian suppliers and those in other regions. As we showed in Argentina's share of Brazilian aluminum sheet halves, a big partner's loss of share tends to reshuffle the whole metals chain, and global buyers have learned to read that signal early.

What to watch from here

Three things are worth tracking in the coming months. First, whether China's share settles near 63.5% or keeps sliding. Second, the import value from each alternative origin, which this dataset does not break out and which the import dashboard for this steel shows month by month. Third, any decision from Camex, Brazil's foreign trade chamber, on quotas and anti-dumping duties, because a tariff change rewrites contracts fast. A stable rank with a falling share can precede a change of leader, or simply a portfolio adjustment. The data cannot yet tell the two apart. It is worth crossing this data with the average price per ton, which shows whether China lost ground on volume or on price.