Paraguay corn pace to Brazil: from decline to growth in March

The headline number is striking: Brazil's month-over-month growth rate for corn imports from Paraguay swung from -68.8% to +207% across the two most recently measured months — an acceleration of nearly 276 percentage points. But reading that as a structural shift in trade would be premature.

What the data actually shows

This is a second-derivative story: not the level of imports, but the rate at which that level is changing. When the month-over-month pace swings violently from negative to positive inside a single measurement cycle, the primary suspect is the comparison base — not a structural demand shift.

Translated plainly: if Brazil bought unusually little Paraguayan corn the prior month (due to off-season timing, logistics disruption, or temporary source substitution), any return to routine volumes registers as a massive percentage acceleration. The 276-percentage-point swing is arithmetically real. The absolute level is what determines whether it is actually meaningful.

The seasonal and low-base caveat

Paraguay's primary corn harvest runs from January through March, with commercialization concentrated in the first half of the year. The reference month — March 2026 — falls precisely at the peak of Paraguayan corn shipments.

That matters because part of the month-over-month jump simply reflects the normal seasonal pattern: post-harvest supply hits the market, cross-border flows to Brazil pick up, and the percentage change amplifies off whatever the preceding month's low point was. It is the agricultural calendar doing its job, not a structural reorientation.

Layer the prior-month contraction (-68.8%) on top of March's seasonal peak, and the mathematical result is an outsized acceleration regardless of whether absolute volumes are at an average, above-average, or below-average level. Brazil is the world's second-largest corn producer and largest corn exporter, which means its own domestic crop cycle creates natural troughs in import demand that amplify these swings.

The structural backdrop

Paraguay has served as a consistent complementary corn supplier to Brazil for years, driven by geography, zero tariffs inside Mercosur (the South American trade bloc), and the ability to fill windows where Brazil's second crop — the safrinha, planted after soybeans — has not yet reached major export hubs like Paranaguá port.

The bilateral corridor is real and durable. What varies cycle to cycle is the volume. When Brazil's own safrinha is large and moves quickly to port, Paraguayan imports shrink. When there is domestic supply lag or regional demand pressure, Paraguay fills the gap. The March acceleration almost certainly reflects the latter function: bridging supply before the safrinha arrives in sufficient volume at market.

Factors to track

The meaningful test is the year-to-date (YTD) cumulative comparison: January through May 2026 versus January through May 2025. If the absolute accumulated volume is materially higher, there is a case for a corridor expanding beyond seasonal norms. If the YTD is similar to prior years, March's acceleration was a calendar effect.

Variables to watch: CONAB's (Brazil's national supply agency) safrinha crop assessments in April and May; the guaraní-to-real exchange rate, which directly affects the border-price competitiveness of Paraguayan corn; and freight availability on the overland routes between Mato Grosso do Sul and the Paraguayan border crossings at Ponta Porã and Guaíra.

The data confirm the pace accelerated. They do not yet confirm the direction changed.